It seems one way Iran fights the US asymmetrically is by harming the Federal financial picture with endlessly higher rates + borrowing costs. If this keeps happening month-after-month, year-after-year, we're really going to feel the squeeze.
Treasury has already tried to reassure markets and failed
It’s a simple calculation though and not talked about enough. USA went to war in Iraq 25 years ago thanks to the oilmen in charge at that time. For all the political bluster about Iran and gas prices, $100 oil makes them hugely more profit than $60 oil. Of course producers and shareholders of American oil companies want that extra free money. They’re not pumping oil out of the ground and keeping it at a low price just to be benevolent to the American consumer.
It's more complex than that. US crude oil extraction companies don't want prices to climb too high as longer term that destroys demand and encourages customers to find alternatives. Something in the $75–80/bbl range for WTI crude is probably optimal to maximize long-term industry profits.
I think that is a contributor, but the root cause of the Iran war was Netenyaha goading a simple person into it. The US military and intelligence community knew the risk of this, told everyone not to do it, and they did it anyway.
That’s correct but it’s multimodal. It might not have been the reason for getting involved in the first place but it does now seem like a reason for something happening every time the oil price starts to drop again.
>This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.
That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil.
If oil starts ruining the financial picture on top of just the...global welfare of every living human picture, then maybe, just maybe people will actually give up their addiction.
Last I checked, depending on one’s needs, used EVs are among some of the best values in the US used car market. Their prices are closer to what prices on used gas cars would’ve been had the market not been turned on its head during the pandemic.
The main caveat is that available models are heavily weighted towards “compact” (RAV4 sized) SUVs and larger. There aren’t many little Prius/Fit/Soul type town car models around which is a bit paradoxical with that being the use case that EVs have been well suited to for the longest time.
In what way is it not worth it? I'm genuinely curious.
I used to be dead-set-against electric cars but I just bought one and am loving it. The maths is staggering. It's secondhand though as I don't believe new ones are worth it.
Refinery capacity is the bottleneck, there are only ~420 of them that remain [1] globally. We won't run out of oil, we will run out of refineries as they slowly close over the next 10-15 years. No new ones will be built, out of stranded asset risk. The more painful oil is now, the faster permanent changes occur to destroy the future demand curve [2] [3]. An EV deployed today will last long into the future, while ICE combustion sales continue to decline.
China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition.
How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice.
(as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
The market values Diesel more. Diesel fuel has more energy per gallon, and a diesel engine as run in the real world is more energy efficient (in a lab gasoline is slightly more energy efficient, but the difference is slight and the conditions needed to make this happen are rare in the real world). Thus those who use a lot of fuel - things like freight and earth moving normally use diesel engines. These are also applications that have less elasticity, so when price goes up they don't use less. (when gas prices go up a few people drive less - or buy more fuel efficient cars, people running diesel already are buying the best fuel efficiency they can for their needs).
While diesel is less refined, the difference isn't much. These days both are heavily refined products, and the cost to refine gasoline isn't very much per gallon.
The real answer: supply/demand is the key factor in the price you pay. Cost to create/build a product generally sets a floor on the price you pay: a business that isn't making money will stop making the product (loss leaders exist, but not a factor here).
That sounds like a great theory but is not consistent with the observation that until not too long ago, diesel used to be cheaper. How do you explain that?
That's the problem with hindsight theories, especially if only using a limit horizon into the past.
Diesel increased in price because truck drivers couldn't afford not to drive their truck. The cartel as well as the distributors are extracting all the value they can at every step. That is why diesel has increased so much.
Ultra-low-sulfur diesel became mandated in 2006 as the only type that was legal to sell for road use. That requires extra refining to remove the naturally-occuring sulfur from the fuel which is why the cost went up.
I have only a passing interest in this but, basically, different oil fields have different percentages of different weight hydrocarbons. The oil can be refined with catalytic cracking to make more gas / kerosene / whatever. As I understand it, we're using "lighter" oil and we're focusing on making gas, so the percentage diesel in the crack spread is lower. So, there's less diesel coming out of the refineries.
This started, I believe when fracking became a major thing (the late 2000s), because shale oils tends to have less heavy hydrocarbons then the old wells.
If the demand for other fuels increases, the cost of diesel can be indirectly affected.
Jet fuel and diesel fuel come from similar parts of the barrel. Refineries can largely choose what kind of fuel they produce for a given unit of input. One barrel doesn't always split into the same fractions. There is configuration involved.
I thought I heard once it was because diesel might be more polluting than regular gas and thus has extra taxes on it? I could be entirely wrong though.
Not in the US, but I believe there are some countries that have tried that. For a while Europe (in general - but individual countries had different policies!) had less tax on diesel because it was more energy efficient, then they realized it was more polluting (less CO2, but more NOx...) and started encouraging gasoline which they decided was overall better.
In the US diesel taxes are often different from gasoline, but polluting is generally not a factor.
Supply and demand? Over here in Germany, Diesel was cheaper than (any kind of) gasoline for a long time, but that has also changed recently (Gemini says since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, so another thing to blame Putin for), now it's about 5% more expensive...
Lately I've been making a conscious effort to flip my coordinate system around on inflation.
Instead of tracking cost increases of fuel, I try to conceptualize prices for all things in equivalent fuel or metered energy.
The fed can overlook energy and food in their "preferred metric of inflation", but that's 90% of what I care about as an individual. Very interesting to track your purchasing power in MWh
I’ve been doing something similar, tracking the price of technology purchase in terms of AAPL shares for 20+ years. It’s amazing how much cheaper computers have gotten!
Remember, the grandiose leader said the Iran special military operation will be over after the midterm elections. Unfortunately he meant the 2034 midterms.
Its weird that american people never protest anything in big masses, or at least its very rare and almost never happens for core livelihood issues (wars, cost of living, corrupt politics...).
It's so different compared to Europe, and I was always wondering why. Is it better propaganda machine or?
Lockheed would still agree that it's good for them - replacing all those $4 million Patriot rockets expended in the Middle East to shoot down Shahed drones that are one or two orders of magnitude cheaper is going to fill their order books for years to come...
Only for a short time, everybody knows about cheap drones and they are ordering cheap drones (likely from Ukraine where they are field tested to work) to shoot down drones. If the next round is in a few years patriots will only be used on much more expensive ballistic missiles.
That said, the patriot is a lot cheaper replace than the things it was defending so it was a good investment even if expensive.
New (Russian) versions of Shaheds are jet propelled (much faster), have high-quality remote control, and as some claim, AI-based computer vision. So old interceptor drones are not working anymore. And the country can manufacture them at much higher rate than the other country can manufacture patriots.
The smart ones properly realized that their home is no longer in the republican party. The others were swept up in culture war because... What other adults do in their lives needs immediate government intervention from the party of small government.
And because driving is slower and less convenient than public transit there. Seriously in Berlin, Paris or London I would prefer the public transit options in nearly all of my trips.
A lot of the “savings” in US get eaten up through poor economy, poor driving strategy and dependence on traffic lights + stop signs instead of roundabouts + “traffic from the left/right gets priority” yield-by-default junctions.
Diesel at the local garage I passed at lunchtime is £1.89 (57% more). The web [0] suggests that is more expensive than anywhere in europe other than France and Denmark for some reason.
So nowhere near "half as cheap". Throw in poor American average mileage and I suspect the price-per-mile is quite similar.
Diesel engines in the US are used for things where they do count fuel costs. (there are a few diesel cars/SUVs, but they are a tiny minority). In short for most diesel users the efficiency is very similar between US and Europe.
Israel has caused more damage the the US and entire world than any other country. They blackmailed our politicians into this war and we continue to suffer for their bloodlust.
What is it "inflation adjusted" or is that cyclical because inflation itself measures/is a measure of the cost of diesel (which bleeds into the cost of goods and services)?
Diesel was over $4/gallon in 2005. Please run inflation against that, not last years prices. (I remember 2005 prices I'm not old enough to remember diesel prices in the 1970s, but that would be an interesting place to run inflation from as well)
>strategic oil reserve is about to experience permanent catastrophic damage from being drained too low
Apparently salt domes have a life span, you pump water in to remove oil. The water wears at the domes and removes more salt creating a larger cavern. It's not that we pumped out so much oil lately, it's because we were pumping out little bits over the last 5 decades constantly wearing at the domes. They were created at the time to only be used in a catastrophic situation, not when ever you want to control the price of oil......
Either way, you are correct in that their life has come to an end, we will require more expensive above ground storage going forward or we can electrify.
The Ukraine angle is another cheap shot by CBS (state sponsored news). Prices are rising because of Trumps adventurism in the the ME and now that the Houthies will likely control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, world markets are reacting.
There is nothing stopping US refineries from producing more diesel, you can use both sweet and sour, this is speculators squeezing the markets.
What a great time it should be to electrify heavy transportation. If they can do it in mining and construction, why can't transportation...
Russia stopped exporting diesel due to Ukrainian strikes. That badly hurt Turkey and to lesser extent Brazil. And Brazil started to get diesel from US allowing US companies to make a lot of profit. So Ukrainian strikes clearly affect global prices.
But then it also makes Chinese EV including trucks extremely attractive replacement. So China making a profit as well.
A lot of the Ukraine strikes affect Russia only. Russia has changed to import a lot more, and exporting less (I do not know the balance - most refining countries both import and export fuel from different locations), but the vast majority of the oil refined in Russia was used in Russia and they are unable to replace it.
Ukraine strikes to impact the world price. However most of the impact is in Russia, elsewhere the effect is less. Iran is larger effect because the middle east as a more significant share of global oil. (both have an effect, but Iran is larger)
Russia hasn't exported products in over a month now. If Diesel prices hit $6 today, it's purely because 6 months after the US president started his war on Iran, Iranian forces in Yemen have routed the Saudis and cut off the second of two SA oil export routes, damaged a vital pipeline in the process, sending crude to $100 and beyond.
My question isn't whether those who voted for Trump 2024 are going to come to their senses and sour on this incompetent, destructive, and corrupt con man. My question is how long their reality check is going to last before they start leaning right back into the revanchist destructionist feel-good narratives. This senseless destruction could have all been prevented if they had merely listened to their fellow citizens rather than writing us off as some caricatures of woke boosters as their media propagandists led them to. Was Trump 2024 a true enough attempt at what they've been demanding that they can finally put this "lost cause" bullshit to bed? Or are its glaring results only going to remain obvious long enough for another temporary reprieve?
And the other party was (among other faults) amazingly complacent as major landlords colluded at scale - via RealPage software - to send apartment rents skyrocketing.
If you look at the timeline, and the demographics of voters who lost enthusiasm for Biden between 2020 and 2024, it looks like a whole lotta the Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck decided to vote their pocketbooks.
Vs. back in '72, when Biden was just getting elected to the Senate, Pres. Nixon was a noisy anti-inflation zealot. (Not saying Nixon was sane, nor legal...) Since Nixon was re-elected with >60% of the popular vote - in spite of negatives like the Vietnam War - I'd say that the Dem's failure to follow a so-obvious winning reelection strategy was exactly what handed Trump the opportunity to make the decisions which you so strongly dislike.
Treasury has already tried to reassure markets and failed
Add to this other trade war nonsense...
This was the desired effect though, as higher oil prices means more profit for US based oil producers. I'm sure that will trickle down any time now.
I am unsure its by design or just idiocy. (Probably a mix of both).
Honestly, I think you're giving far too much credit to the current US government.
That's giving the Trump administration too much credit. Before the war there were pieces about how oil companies were doing worse under Trump than under Biden[1]. Of course, you could argue that the Iran war is Trump finally responding to oil companies, but given that it only started more than a year after he took power, it really makes you wonder whether Trump is bumbling along, or playing some 5d chess with the global oil market. On the flip side there's plenty of evidence that he doesn't want high oil prices, for instance lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil.
[1] https://www.economist.com/business/2025/02/06/donald-trump-l...
It's lost 60% of its value, has only done 57k miles and has a battery state of health of 97.4%. I paid £22k.
I still maintain that new cars, especially new electric cars, are not worth the money but secondhand ones are a bargain now... relatively speaking.
The main caveat is that available models are heavily weighted towards “compact” (RAV4 sized) SUVs and larger. There aren’t many little Prius/Fit/Soul type town car models around which is a bit paradoxical with that being the use case that EVs have been well suited to for the longest time.
I used to be dead-set-against electric cars but I just bought one and am loving it. The maths is staggering. It's secondhand though as I don't believe new ones are worth it.
China has destroyed oil import demand the equivalent of annual UK oil imports in the last six months, for example. Push those oil and diesel prices up, hold them up as long as possible. Several countries have banned internal combustion vehicle imports to push the needle on the EV trajectory (Ethiopia, Laos) because they are fossil fuel poor. Global EV sales have spiked, and already exceed 25% of total annual vehicles sales (~90M units/year) [4]. We're just discussing how long until we reach tipping points that further accelerate the transition.
How much fossil supply chain infra must be impaired to further move the needle? Hard to say, excited to find out. Electrify or get wrecked. To not to is a choice.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49479229 (citations)
[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49647405 (citations)
[3] Gas car sales fell 40% in August in China [Charts] - https://carnewschina.com/2026/09/08/gas-car-sales-fell-40-in...
[4] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
(as of this comment, China has enough EV manufacturing capacity to satisfy global demand; they are currently export constrained and cannot ship fast enough to meet demand)
Still that makes very clear why Venezuela had to happen before Iran.
As someone who drives a 2003 Golf TDI, I'm currently looking at CAD 2.40/L: EUR1.49/USD1.73 per L.
* https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/diesel_prices/
* https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/gasoline_prices/
Is there any reason why Diesel costs more? I was always under the impression that it was a less-refined fuel therefore cheaper.
While diesel is less refined, the difference isn't much. These days both are heavily refined products, and the cost to refine gasoline isn't very much per gallon.
The real answer: supply/demand is the key factor in the price you pay. Cost to create/build a product generally sets a floor on the price you pay: a business that isn't making money will stop making the product (loss leaders exist, but not a factor here).
[0] https://www.npr.org/2022/08/31/1120422634/breaking-down-the-...
That's the problem with hindsight theories, especially if only using a limit horizon into the past.
This started, I believe when fracking became a major thing (the late 2000s), because shale oils tends to have less heavy hydrocarbons then the old wells.
And the ethanol makes the fuel less valuable (energy reduction per litre) moreso than biodiesel.
Jet fuel and diesel fuel come from similar parts of the barrel. Refineries can largely choose what kind of fuel they produce for a given unit of input. One barrel doesn't always split into the same fractions. There is configuration involved.
In the US diesel taxes are often different from gasoline, but polluting is generally not a factor.
EDIT: meaning "less taxes"
I was always under the impression that a big part of the difference in cost is largely due to taxes.
Instead of tracking cost increases of fuel, I try to conceptualize prices for all things in equivalent fuel or metered energy.
The fed can overlook energy and food in their "preferred metric of inflation", but that's 90% of what I care about as an individual. Very interesting to track your purchasing power in MWh
I am not interested in nominal new highs.
Rule of Acquisition number 35: Peace is good for business.
That said, the patriot is a lot cheaper replace than the things it was defending so it was a good investment even if expensive.
Losing at war is universally bad. And long stalemated forever wars can be just as bad for both sides.
I think cost per kilometre/lightyear/rod is close
Diesel at the local garage I passed at lunchtime is £1.89 (57% more). The web [0] suggests that is more expensive than anywhere in europe other than France and Denmark for some reason.
So nowhere near "half as cheap". Throw in poor American average mileage and I suspect the price-per-mile is quite similar.
[0] https://www.fuel-prices.eu/live/
Inflation is high ... but not that high
even if you do not drive, it affects every delivery
imagine this pattern through 2029
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
800 more days, even just a penny increase per day
we're out of $4 Million dollar tomahawks and the iranians have endless supply of $50K drones
strategic oil reserve is about to experience permanent catastrophic damage from being drained too low
Apparently salt domes have a life span, you pump water in to remove oil. The water wears at the domes and removes more salt creating a larger cavern. It's not that we pumped out so much oil lately, it's because we were pumping out little bits over the last 5 decades constantly wearing at the domes. They were created at the time to only be used in a catastrophic situation, not when ever you want to control the price of oil......
Either way, you are correct in that their life has come to an end, we will require more expensive above ground storage going forward or we can electrify.
There is nothing stopping US refineries from producing more diesel, you can use both sweet and sour, this is speculators squeezing the markets.
What a great time it should be to electrify heavy transportation. If they can do it in mining and construction, why can't transportation...
Aren't they already producing as much as they can? Which is not sufficient given that globally a significant fraction of refining capacity is offline.
Or are you saying the Ukraine drone strikes have not affected the output at a scale where it matters globally?
But then it also makes Chinese EV including trucks extremely attractive replacement. So China making a profit as well.
Ukraine strikes to impact the world price. However most of the impact is in Russia, elsewhere the effect is less. Iran is larger effect because the middle east as a more significant share of global oil. (both have an effect, but Iran is larger)
Because supply side. Can't have our oil barons losing out.
24 years ago, I recall diesel being $1.25/gallon, and hamburger meat at a little local grocer for $1/pound any time they had a sale.
Now, even going to Costco, their ground chuck is $6/pound.
If you look at the timeline, and the demographics of voters who lost enthusiasm for Biden between 2020 and 2024, it looks like a whole lotta the Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck decided to vote their pocketbooks.
Vs. back in '72, when Biden was just getting elected to the Senate, Pres. Nixon was a noisy anti-inflation zealot. (Not saying Nixon was sane, nor legal...) Since Nixon was re-elected with >60% of the popular vote - in spite of negatives like the Vietnam War - I'd say that the Dem's failure to follow a so-obvious winning reelection strategy was exactly what handed Trump the opportunity to make the decisions which you so strongly dislike.
Incompetence or malice? Both is also possible...