Probably not. Afaik only the Dutch have eaten their leader in a time of desperation and while I'm not saying that other nations should have taken notes, we are probably all thinking it...
That's it? Momentary gasoline price is all that matters now? Not geopolitical interests, alliances, _Doing The Right Thing_? If that's the only angle you care about, then US subduing the Iranian regime would go a long way to de-facto dissolving OPEC and bring much more flexibility to oil prices.
Do you think some evil military planners sat in the Pentagon, saw that school, said "let's shoot at it for shits and giggles" and pressed the button? Or are you trying to pollute a grown up conversation with sensationalism and punchy hooks?
In reality someone made a mistake. It can happen. It should be investigated. It should not deter from achieving the military objectives.
None of which is being handled by the current admin with a modicum of professionalism or competency, so I guess at times you just have to pick _one_ from the laundry list of complaints here.
Plus if gas prices rise more people might switch to EVs, drive less often, and/or hopefully begin to understand the fragility of our car-only infrastructure and mandatory car ownership and demand better urban planning and transportation options.
Oh, now worries, I can take my bicycle or train whenever possible (like right now). And since I am european, I do not just worry about gasoline, but also that the US actually might attack us at some point, Trump did threaten again over greenland and the last time - it was not just words, danish troops took it serious and were ready to shoot.
Also, the gasoline prices are only "momentary" up, if the whole area does not burst into flames. Then it doesn't matter if the trait is closed, as no more oil is being produced.
The only bright side is, this is a great push for renewables.
Since WWII you're living under the umbrella of the US, as client states. There was no reason Europe could not amass a significant military power that would grant its sovereignty, but money went to increasing quality of life instead. Trump the 45th even implored EU to do so and bolster NATO.
"Trump the 45th even implored EU to do so and bolster NATO."
All he wanted was EU to buy more US weapons (also to help with his wars). Guess what is happening now, we still do buy US weapons where there is no other choice, but apart from that, we build and buy our own things now. Try to get rid of US software depenencies - in general, get rid of any dependency we have towards you. If this was Trump's goal, great job I have to say.
That's rich, the guy threatening the existence of NATO more than any other factor is trying to bolster NATO. I struggle to imagine how you square this in your mind.
You don’t think that the person you’re replying to is Donald Trump, do you? He’s not wrong even though I can see why amassing independent defense didn’t feel necessary all this time
> You don’t think that the person you’re replying to is Donald Trump, do you?
I'm confused how this could interpretation could ever come about. No, I mean his point about "Trump trying to bolster NATO" is comic, as Trump is actively weakening NATO, no matter his stated goals wrt. improving funding and having member states "carry their load". _Especially_ his threats to Greenland and Canada, for no apparent reason. It's really mind-boggling. Perhaps my fault, since I expect mental consistency from post-truth populists and authoritarians.
At the outset, he doesn't want to carry the burden of NATO alone. Maybe he has other strategic interests in mind where US deviates from the rest of the world (like Greenland) but he's entirely right that NATO really depends on the US.
Trump's attitude towards NATO member state spend it widely publicized [0] so I don't think there's much to debate here. Trump wanted member states to spend more, not less.
He was somewhat prescient during his 45th presidency, given what happened in Ukraine in 2022 and how it forced US to spend huge amounts of money and military hardware which the EU simply didn't have. Maybe with a stronger standing EU army, that invasion would not have happened in the first place.
I don’t quite agree with making fun of the situation that’s deadly serious to many innocent people. Yet I’m sure the intentions of the author were good.
Doesn't seem to work on iPhone. I suggest having a button to toggle between mine marking mode and regular mode - I used that on my own little vibe-coded minesweeper clone here: https://tools.simonwillison.net/minesweeper
This is symptom of the misunderstanding among people that somehow more people being knowledgeable about politics will bring about a change. "Pen is mightier than sword" was probably written by a person who only wielded pen. It's a collective psyops inflicted by people on themselves, belonging to an era where it made sense. In today's world, it doesn't matter. Bring missles to a sword / knife fight. Only true power is respected.
You completely misunderstood that. Take into account that you see the swords failing all around you whilst one nation effectively messed up the rest of the world through propaganda and maybe you'll begin to understand the true meaning of that sentence.
Information, used well or abused well, is more powerful than any other weapon of war.
"Information, used well or abused well, is more powerful than any other weapon of war."
Indeed, because people with the swords will decide on that information who to slain or who to defend. If you do it right, you don't need to fight the enemy soldiers, but they will fight for you.
First, conclusion is confounding respect and fear. No one is going to kill a person they respect while they slip or as soon as a window of doability occurs. Fear can bring surface level compliance to orders, but it doesn't provide much respect.
Playing by the book of fear uncertainty and doubt is going to foster hate, distrust and suspicion/paranoia.
This sort of ridiculous reductionism has never been true. Do you seriously think all the conflicts we experience have never been there before?
"Only true power is respected"—what’s this even supposed to mean? Right now, the American military is shooting with all its mighty glory on Iran, yet loosing the war, money, and yes, respect from the rest of the world. Well, except for Putin maybe, who is unilaterally benefiting from this disaster.
This little incel power fantasy of rule by force you guys are cooking up there is complete and utter bollocks.
It's pretty cool. That's too on the nose as the Overton window of the majority of Westerners have been primed to almost completely ignore the plight of people from the Global South unless it's Israel or fair skinned people. A more apropos reality satire game would be one that rewards airstrikes on densely-populated areas based on outdated intelligence, AI-chosen targets, and using the most expensive and excessively-destructive ordinance. A companion game/game mechanics would be to remove layered air defense from friendly sites and deploy expensive equipment close to enemies where the goal is to make defense contractors as rich as possible.
It’s rather ironic that you would make this kind of comment at the same time as your other comment (I happened to notice) about the pen being mightier than the sword, considering that it’s light skinned Iranians (including literal Aryans) being killed by a hodgepodge of skin colors in Israel and among the US troops assembled for invasion and who will die killing the light(er) skinned Iranians.
Although the American troops are wildly disproportionately “white” because that is historically the pool of peasants the people with the pen draw on to sacrifice and murder for their wars, if you look at the forces and the US military in general, it’s the most diverse, multi-cultural, rainbow coalition in existence on this planet. You literally have people of every race, ethnicity, and nationality included in a rainbow of killing and they are proud of it; yet here we are being sarcastic about it being as simple as “whites” killing “browns”, not realizing that just demonstrates the pen’s lingering albeit still useful control over the mind.
Your point is well made though, the pen is indeed far more powerful when it can hide in plain sight the multi-cultural, rainbow coalition, diversity sword of the maniacal, narcissistic, psychopathic, child raping, Epstein class right in front of you.
Anything other than lily white is brown, don't you know? More so if they're sitting on top of a bunch of oil, or have the wrong religion, or just happen to be born in the wrong spot.
Racism isn't necessarily perfectly confined to color, it's just a convenient shorthand so people can do what they want to do anyway.
Hormuz is not a minefield though. According to sources, ships are moving near the coast of Iran, according to other sources they are being charged $2M per passage. According to other sources only Yuan paid oil is allowed.
Iran has indicated they will only target ships tied to countries that are involved in the conflict.
That likely means US and Israel. Unclear if countries like the UK that are facilitating the US through use of their bases would be considered legitimate targets (likely yes).
Unfortunately Iran's leadership is in a bit of distress and communication disrupted, and "involved in the conflict" is a very broad term - so they do make some effort to get chinese oil out, but any ship not asking for explicit permission from Iran - will have some great risk of being targeted.
Remember, the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters. So no one would have to ask them for permission, but that is the way it is and most do not risk it (insurance won't cover).
A small number of ships are crossing with AIS off (and without the benefit of GPS, because it is jammed) by coordinating with Iran. For example: https://gcaptain.com/iranian-navy-guided-indian-tanker-throu.... These will not show up on Marine Traffic as they are transiting the strait.
I've seen reports of ship turning off their AIS before attempting the strait, not sure if this is still valid but Marine Traffic only shows AIS signals that are turned on, which is as simple as flipping a switch.
Also something Chinese fishing ships do around the galapagos and other regions to fish illegally.
> Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the strait each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, carrying one fifth of the global oil supply.
> The data provided by shipping analysts Kpler shows 99 vessels passing the narrow strait so far this month, an average of just 5-6 vessels a day.
I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. The threat isn't coming from mines anyway.
It might not be. It might be. Uncertainty is the point of what Iran is doing.
There might be mines in the straight that are sophisticated enough to be armed, disarmed, or moved on command, or there might not. There might be artillery emplacements* hidden and not found, ready to pop up... or there might not. There are probably still plenty of drones and missiles all over the country that can be called down on Hormuz at will. Iran might choose to save them for something else... or they might not.
If a few oil tankers get through without Iran's permission, one might conclude everything Iran has in place has been found and that the straight is safe. Then again, it might not be. The Iranians might save a few choice surprises for the first aircraft carrier that gets too close. They might also choose to actually sink a large ship**, blocking the straight long-term. The Iranian regime has been planning specifically for a U.S. invasion since it's inception*** and they probably have some very well hidden and nasty surprises as well as plans to use them to maximum effect.
Merchant vessels can't get insurance to go through because of all this uncertainty. The U.S. Navy has completely refused to go in there because losing a multi-billion dollar military vessel along with hundreds or thousands of sailors for a war that's already unpopular would likely knock the U.S. out of it completely. This is why Trump is desperate for other nations to come in and clear the straight. He doesn't care if they lose ships, but he can't afford to lose even one American ship for a "Wag the Dog" war that's already exploded the budget.
-------------------
*The straight is narrow enough that artillery can actually cover it. Even the most sophisticated anti-missile defence systems aren't meant to deal with artillery shells fired from nearly point blank range.
**The straight has only a couple of channels deep enough for large vessels to transit. One or two well positioned wrecks could block the works.
*** They rebelled against a Shah installed by a CIA backed coup after all.
So what's left of the Iranian regime is basically like the Houthis now, reduced to getting world attention by committing random acts of piracy and firing at random ships off their coast. To make whatever point they were trying to make. Seems like a win to me. Declare victory, say the straight is open, just like the Red Sea is open. If anything moves at shipping, destroy its source. They don't have a right to attack merchant vessels, and there's no reason to negotiate with them either.
In reality someone made a mistake. It can happen. It should be investigated. It should not deter from achieving the military objectives.
"https://www.euractiv.com/news/denmark-considered-destroying-..."
Unpleasant if this escalates.
Also, the gasoline prices are only "momentary" up, if the whole area does not burst into flames. Then it doesn't matter if the trait is closed, as no more oil is being produced.
The only bright side is, this is a great push for renewables.
All he wanted was EU to buy more US weapons (also to help with his wars). Guess what is happening now, we still do buy US weapons where there is no other choice, but apart from that, we build and buy our own things now. Try to get rid of US software depenencies - in general, get rid of any dependency we have towards you. If this was Trump's goal, great job I have to say.
I'm confused how this could interpretation could ever come about. No, I mean his point about "Trump trying to bolster NATO" is comic, as Trump is actively weakening NATO, no matter his stated goals wrt. improving funding and having member states "carry their load". _Especially_ his threats to Greenland and Canada, for no apparent reason. It's really mind-boggling. Perhaps my fault, since I expect mental consistency from post-truth populists and authoritarians.
Trump's attitude towards NATO member state spend it widely publicized [0] so I don't think there's much to debate here. Trump wanted member states to spend more, not less.
He was somewhat prescient during his 45th presidency, given what happened in Ukraine in 2022 and how it forced US to spend huge amounts of money and military hardware which the EU simply didn't have. Maybe with a stronger standing EU army, that invasion would not have happened in the first place.
[0] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01495933.2021.19...
https://strait-sweeper.franzai.com/
I don’t quite agree with making fun of the situation that’s deadly serious to many innocent people. Yet I’m sure the intentions of the author were good.
Hoping for peace.
This is America, the country willing to do the unconscionable when they're not winning fast enough.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...
You completely misunderstood that. Take into account that you see the swords failing all around you whilst one nation effectively messed up the rest of the world through propaganda and maybe you'll begin to understand the true meaning of that sentence.
Information, used well or abused well, is more powerful than any other weapon of war.
Indeed, because people with the swords will decide on that information who to slain or who to defend. If you do it right, you don't need to fight the enemy soldiers, but they will fight for you.
Playing by the book of fear uncertainty and doubt is going to foster hate, distrust and suspicion/paranoia.
"Only true power is respected"—what’s this even supposed to mean? Right now, the American military is shooting with all its mighty glory on Iran, yet loosing the war, money, and yes, respect from the rest of the world. Well, except for Putin maybe, who is unilaterally benefiting from this disaster.
This little incel power fantasy of rule by force you guys are cooking up there is complete and utter bollocks.
> Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.
if it's against Trump or right wing.
This would all be funny if it wasn't so sad.
Although the American troops are wildly disproportionately “white” because that is historically the pool of peasants the people with the pen draw on to sacrifice and murder for their wars, if you look at the forces and the US military in general, it’s the most diverse, multi-cultural, rainbow coalition in existence on this planet. You literally have people of every race, ethnicity, and nationality included in a rainbow of killing and they are proud of it; yet here we are being sarcastic about it being as simple as “whites” killing “browns”, not realizing that just demonstrates the pen’s lingering albeit still useful control over the mind.
Your point is well made though, the pen is indeed far more powerful when it can hide in plain sight the multi-cultural, rainbow coalition, diversity sword of the maniacal, narcissistic, psychopathic, child raping, Epstein class right in front of you.
The pen is indeed far mightier than the sword
Racism isn't necessarily perfectly confined to color, it's just a convenient shorthand so people can do what they want to do anyway.
I was expecting some curve balls at the end with undecidable constellations but it was all quite straightforward.
That likely means US and Israel. Unclear if countries like the UK that are facilitating the US through use of their bases would be considered legitimate targets (likely yes).
Remember, the strait is not Iranian property, but International waters. So no one would have to ask them for permission, but that is the way it is and most do not risk it (insurance won't cover).
Also something Chinese fishing ships do around the galapagos and other regions to fish illegally.
> Before the war, about 138 ships passed through the strait each day according to the Joint Maritime Information Centre, carrying one fifth of the global oil supply.
> The data provided by shipping analysts Kpler shows 99 vessels passing the narrow strait so far this month, an average of just 5-6 vessels a day.
I mean, it's bad, but it's factually not a minefield. The threat isn't coming from mines anyway.
There might be mines in the straight that are sophisticated enough to be armed, disarmed, or moved on command, or there might not. There might be artillery emplacements* hidden and not found, ready to pop up... or there might not. There are probably still plenty of drones and missiles all over the country that can be called down on Hormuz at will. Iran might choose to save them for something else... or they might not.
If a few oil tankers get through without Iran's permission, one might conclude everything Iran has in place has been found and that the straight is safe. Then again, it might not be. The Iranians might save a few choice surprises for the first aircraft carrier that gets too close. They might also choose to actually sink a large ship**, blocking the straight long-term. The Iranian regime has been planning specifically for a U.S. invasion since it's inception*** and they probably have some very well hidden and nasty surprises as well as plans to use them to maximum effect.
Merchant vessels can't get insurance to go through because of all this uncertainty. The U.S. Navy has completely refused to go in there because losing a multi-billion dollar military vessel along with hundreds or thousands of sailors for a war that's already unpopular would likely knock the U.S. out of it completely. This is why Trump is desperate for other nations to come in and clear the straight. He doesn't care if they lose ships, but he can't afford to lose even one American ship for a "Wag the Dog" war that's already exploded the budget.
-------------------
*The straight is narrow enough that artillery can actually cover it. Even the most sophisticated anti-missile defence systems aren't meant to deal with artillery shells fired from nearly point blank range.
**The straight has only a couple of channels deep enough for large vessels to transit. One or two well positioned wrecks could block the works.
*** They rebelled against a Shah installed by a CIA backed coup after all.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/20/risk-london...
And then: "after you" ... "no, I insist, after you" ...